Media flighting, or running ads in concentrated bursts around key moments, is one of the most common strategies in marketing. But is it actually working? This week, we dug into the research on marginal ROI, peak week CPMs, and what always-on reach really delivers.
$42 billion in spend shows that shoulder weeks outperform peak weeks on marginal ROI.
A Keen Decision Systems analysis of 400 brands found that the weeks before and after major events often deliver higher returns than the concentrated peak itself. Less saturation means more efficient reach, and more efficient reach means more revenue per dollar.
Is Your Peak Spend Worth It?
Why has flighting become the default strategy for so many brands?
It's inherited behavior. Marketing used to run on campaigns tied to product launches and seasonal pushes. Retail calendars reinforced it. Finance teams liked it because it aligned media dollars to revenue peaks. The logic looked clean. Over time, the operational model became an institutional habit.
What happens when everyone piles into peak weeks?
CPMs and saturation go up. You end up buying more frequency against the same people at a higher cost, including people who were going to buy anyway. What feels like dominance can actually be diminishing returns.
What is marginal ROI, and why does it matter more than blended ROI?
Blended ROI averages your total return across all dollars spent. Marginal ROI asks what your most recent dollar is actually doing. If your early dollars were strong, your blended number still looks good, even when incremental spend is barely moving the needle. That's where inefficiency hides.
Should brands default to always-on advertising instead?
It depends on your category. If your product sells year-round, being on consistently builds mental availability and delivers more efficient reach during less competitive weeks. But for highly seasonal categories, like tax software, a more concentrated approach can still make sense. The key is matching your spend to actual demand patterns, not inherited habit.
"How a Precise Timing Structure Drives Material Differences in Marketing Efficiency"
This Keen Decision Systems article analyzed 400 brands and $42 billion in spend to compare flighted campaigns against a model that redistributed budget to the weeks with the highest marginal return. Linear TV improved the most.
Presence over bursts
“Long-term consistency trumps short-term intensity."
— Bruce Lee
This newsletter comes from the hosts of The Marketing Architects, a research-first show answering your biggest marketing questions. Find us on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.
